‘Russians loved history and tradition, but liked to be led and could not get organised.’ – a line I wrote myself; but one that in the light of the current protests in Russia suddenly seems outdated.
So what’s happened? Firstly, it seems Putin and his team have dropped a catch, and it’s a dolly they’ve put down. Somehow they’ve not kept up with the changes in how Russians use the internet, particularly the under thirties. Stories of electoral fraud cannot be brushed under the carpet when there’s YouTube and a discontented population no longer prepared to be taken for a ride. Dull reports of leadership meetings, reminiscent of the Soviet era and usually dominating the news on the First Channel and NTV, are becoming less and less relevant as people get their news through platforms like Livejournal, Facebook and Vkontakte instead. Basically it’s not 2004 any more - election campaign strategies that worked then do not work now.
So what now? Much will depend on the degree to which Putin and Medvedev are able to appease protesters in the short-term – the head of the central electoral commission could well be the first sacrifice, possibly before the end of the year. It’s possible after an investigation they’ll be able to claim the fraud was because of rogue elements down the food chain, and indeed it could be that neither the President nor the Prime Minister had direct knowledge of its extent – there are enough people below them terrified enough of losing power to make it worthwhile organising ballot box stuffing and the ferrying around of compliant voters.
Will Putin sacrifice Medvedev in a reshuffle? Unlikely, given that much of the anger has been directed instead towards Prime Minister rather than President. For the time being Medvedev - seen as the more liberal of the two – is likely to be key as spokesman for the leadership; Putin will stay in the background for as long as possible. This means Medvedev will probably survive for the time being, but might find himself sacked from the Prime Minister role in 2013 if things haven’t improved.
But surely Putin can’t be re-elected President in March? Yes he can, and he will be. For one thing, despite the protests he remains relatively popular, particularly amongst the poor and in some of the provinces. And for many this popularity is deserved – through the last decade Putin oversaw the country’s evolution from the chaos of the Yeltsin era to becoming a country where many of its people were able to find a stable job, start to enjoy themselves with the extra money they had and to hope of a better future. Pensioners, for example, have benefited from his considerable pension increases. Though the economy has taken a turn for the worse, some see Putin as the best man to lead the country out of it.
For many voting for Putin is a case of better the devil you know. There’s a suspicion that a new leader would only want to bring in his people, who’d then want to get rich through abusing their new power - better to stick to the guy whose team has probably done all that. And there is a lack of credible alternative right now. The political opposition is a mish-mash of Communists, liberals and nationalists whose most recognisable figures have by and large had a shot at power and come up short either under Yeltsin or Putin. They’re unlikely to be able to unite behind one or even two realistic candidates in time for March.
So expect Putin to return to power in 2012, despite the dissatisfaction. Expect a campaign that attempts to integrate social media, labels the opposition as hardcore nationalists or American stooges and features one or two new faces who’ll become more important in the coming years. Putin will win but not by a huge majority, which could leave the door open to a real contest in the election after that.
Alternatively, expect the unexpected – something from leftfield, just as when Putin became Yeltsin’s successor on New Year’s Eve 1999. This is, after all, Russia we are talking about…
Saul Pope lived in Russia during both the Yeltsin and Putin presidential eras. As well as writing about football in Russia for ‘When Saturday Comes’ he is the author of ‘New Holland’, a mystery novel set in St. Petersburg and published by Espresso Books. You can take a peek here or here.
